Finding perspective

So the transfer window has closed and Arsenal have signed a grand total of 0 players to come in to the first team squad whilst getting rid of a few more. This has led to predictable outrage. Claims that our season and push for the top four is over. That Edu and Arteta have to go. That we will be lucky to finish in the top half.

Last week I said that it would be bordering on negligent for Arsenal to not fill the two positions that we knew we had the biggest need for when the transfer window opened: center forward and center midfield. To a degree, I stand by that statement, although maybe negligent was a bit strong of a word.

Let’s look at the situation rationally, starting with the need for a midfielder. We entered January knowing that we would be losing Thomas Partey and Mo Elneny to AFCON, leaving us with Xhaka and Lokonga as our only two recognized midfielders for about a month. There was a clear need there. However, as the month rolled on, we only played 2 league games, 1 of which Partey played in against Manchester City and one we drew. We drew the first leg of our league cup semi, losing Xhaka for 2 games in the process, were then knocked out of the FA cup, and then had our league game against Sp*rs postponed. At this point Partey returned and featured in the second leg of the semi, picking up an unfortunate suspension, before the Burnley draw.

So, although the need was clearly there at the beginning of the month, and to be fair you could argue it increased as the month went on due to suspension, by the time deadline day rolled around it was fair to say that the need had alleviated slightly. Both first-choice midfielders will be available for the next game on the 10th February, as well as having Lokonga still available and Elneny back from international duty. 

The club did look at deals in this area during the window. There was the protracted saga involving Arthur Melo, but terms couldn’t be agreed on the length of the loan. There was also mass hysteria from some fans when it became clear that Bruno Guimaraes was going to be on the move. But a bid never went in and he has ended up at Newcastle. Ultimately, the right player on the right terms wasn’t available, were back to our full compliment in central midfield, thus no deal was done.

The center forward search was probably the higher priority of the two. Going into the month with a frozen out Aubameyang, Lacazette, Nketiah and Balogun, it seemed obvious that we were crying out for a goalscorer. As expected, Flo went out on loan early on to Middlesborough. We were then treated to a drawn out saga involving Dusan Vlahovic. It was evident that he was the primary target, and by all accounts we were willing to put the money down. However, it never seemed he (or his agents) was interested in the move and he wound up at Juventus. 

There was then some classic Arsenal transfer window investigation when Aleksander Isak was spotted in Selfridges in London. This coupled with a brand new Rolls Royce with the number plate IS AAK being spotted around the vicinity of the Emirates sent the fans in to a frenzy. But Sociedad stood firm, refusing to budge from the release clause of 90m Euros. Attempts were made to negotiate that down, but ultimately it was decided that the cost didn’t match the value and no deal was done.

There was to be no deadline day drama. No incomings. Just an increasing sense of anger and rage from sections of the fanbase. All of a sudden, losing fringe players like Pablo Mari, Callum Chambers and Sead Kolasinac, none of whom had made a matchday league squad since august, without replacing them was unforgivable, a disgrace, an outrage. To then see Aubameyang leave as the minutes ticked away just exacerbated the situation. 

So, lets take emotion out of the situation and look at why these decisions may have been made by the club. With regards to the midfielder, as I explained earlier the need decreased as the month went on and, with no suitable loan appearing available the decision was made to stick with what we’ve got. I get the furor around Bruno Guimaraes going to Newcastle, but this doesn’t mean that the club were incompetent. If what we read is true, this is a player they have tracked since his time in Brazil. Yet, when the opportunity was there to take him at an affordable price, the decision was made not to do so. Maybe, just maybe, the club do admire him, but he has never been top of a list of targets, and certainly not high enough to put the money down for if the opportunity arose. We have totrust that the club know more about the player than the fans do, and he clearly didn’t tick all of the boxes.

As far as the striker search goes, the club clearly set their stall out early doors on this one. But when Vlahovic was off the table and the Isak deal was not there to be done without triggering the release clause, the decision was made that rather than over-spending on a player that they didn’t feel was worth the price, we would wait it out until the summer.

With Aubameyang leaving, this does represent a clear risk. We’re putting our faith in Nketiah and Lacazette, who have a combined 3 league goals this season. But we also have Saka, Smith-Rowe, Martinelli and Odegaard who have combined for 22 goals in the league. Yes, they are young and it is a lot of pressure to put on them, but they have so far shown themselves to be more than up to the job. And let us not forget that Nicolas Pepe is back as well. He’s coming off the back of an impressive AFCON and has a point to prove with likely ample opportunity.

There are also clear signs that the club are learning from their mistakes and the mistakes of the previous regime. I don’t think anyone would argue that we overpaid for Pepe. It is encouraging to see that the club was not willing to go down the same road with regards to Isak. They had a value in mind for the player that they were willing to play, the player would not move for that price, the club said no. Similarly, if there is a player on a big contract deemed surplus to requirements there is no hanging around, they are being moved on. Signs that we have learned from the Ozil debacle maybe?

As it stands then, we have a portion of the fanbase who are angry that we haven’t spent money on players that they wanted, to try and reach a position that they said we weren’t good enough to reach anyway. This all seems pretty ridiculous to me. 

At the start of the season, looking at where we finished last year and the strength of the squads ahead of us, top 6 would have been an acceptable outcome, with caveats to how close to top 4 we finish and performances. But here we are in a position that looked improbable, if not impossible, after the first 3 games of the season. Yes, we may have trimmed the squad to 17 recognized first teamers, but they are the 17 that have got us in to this position. They have 17 games left this season, playing 1 game a week for the most part. If we can stay healthy and free of suspension (I’m looking at you Granit) then there is a chance that they could achieve something special.

And if they do? We have slashed our wage bill. We haven’t wasted any money in January. We will be in an incredible position in the summer to make the additions that we need. We should be able to get that midfielder. We should be able to get the two top strikers that we will need, assuming that Eddie and Laca leave at the end of their contracts. The club have put themselves in a strong position for the summer. Arteta is backing these players to get us where he wants to take us. We should all back them, and the club, too.